Season workbench
Sabr-Jev
Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.
Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.
- Ronald Acuña · 2023
- Jose Altuve · 2022
- Yordan Alvarez · 2022
- Randy Arozarena · 2024
- Cody Bellinger · 2023
- Mookie Betts · 2023
- Xander Bogaerts · 2022
- Corbin Carroll · 2023
- Freddie Freeman · 2023
- Paul Goldschmidt · 2022
- Vladimir Guerrero · 2021
- Gunnar Henderson · 2024
- Aaron Judge · 2022
- Aaron Judge · 2024
- Aaron Judge · 2025
- Shohei Ohtani · 2024
- Jose Ramirez · 2022
- Julio Rodriguez · 2023
- Kyle Schwarber · 2022
- Marcus Semien · 2021
- Juan Soto · 2024
- Juan Soto · 2025
- Mike Trout · 2024
- Trea Turner · 2023
- Bobby Witt · 2024
Xander Bogaerts · 2022 · batter
- OPS+ (Sabr-Jev)
- 129.148
- wOBA
- 0.363
| PA | 631 |
|---|---|
| ISO | 0.149 |
| BB% | 0.090 |
| K% | 0.187 |
| BABIP | 0.362 |
No previous season in frozen catalog for evidence comparison.
Sample: 631 PA (minimum 200) · qualified
No data warnings.
Model read
stable provisional thresholds
The supplied metrics support a sustainable, broadly stable season read.
The metrics provide a strong and coherent signal.
- Signal
- strong (86.0%)
- Read confidence
- 24.0%
Confidence is mixed — the full probabilities below are the verdict, not a single call.
Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.
Shows its work — audit trail
- Model
- jev-1.13.0
- Recorded
- 2026-09-21T21:44:02Z
- State hash
sha256:055f0ee8489e…- Questions hash
sha256:4cfe7f0c4dce…- Card artifact
-
priv/data/cards.json
- confidence_in_signal: act
- ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next: review
- profile: escalate
- season_read: escalate
Under review: full probabilities below, no single bold recommendation.
confidence_in_signal
| weak | 1.0% |
|---|---|
| moderate | 8.0% |
| strong | 91.0% |
ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next
| P(true) | 37.0% |
|---|---|
| Confidence max(p, 1-p) | 63.0% |
profile
| power | 20.0% |
|---|---|
| discipline | 29.0% |
| contact | 8.0% |
| balanced | 42.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
season_read
| breakout | 29.0% |
|---|---|
| stable | 39.0% |
| regression_risk | 28.0% |
| small_sample | 2.0% |
| other | 2.0% |
Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | Change (actual outcome) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPS+ (Sabr-Jev) | 129.1 | 120.5 | ▼ dropped −8.6 (target: drop ≥ 10) |
Target: ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next · Label: false · Season: 2023
Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.
At the time, the model projected 37.0% chance
of noul
change. Actual outcome is in the table above.
Evaluation status
Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.
2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.