Season workbench

Sabr-Jev

Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.

Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.

Aaron Judge · 2022 · batter

OPS+ (Sabr-Jev): 210.861
wOBA: 0.458

PA	692
ISO	0.375
BB%	0.160
K%	0.253
BABIP	0.340

No previous season in frozen catalog for evidence comparison.

Sample: 692 PA (minimum 200) · qualified

No data warnings.

Model read

breakout provisional thresholds

The supplied metrics jointly support an unusually strong positive season read.

Confidence 67.0% · 94.0% signal · strong

The metrics provide a strong and coherent signal.

Signal: strong (94.0%)
Read confidence: 67.0%

Confidence clears the bar collectively — act on this read.

Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.

Shows its work — audit trail

Model: jev-1.13.0
Recorded: 2026-09-21T18:57:05Z
State hash: sha256:730ac942083a…
Questions hash: sha256:4cfe7f0c4dce…
Card artifact: priv/data/cards.json

confidence_in_signal: act
ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next: review
profile: act
season_read: act

Recommended read: breakout

confidence_in_signal: strong (94.0% confidence)
ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next: P(true) 46.0% (54.0% confidence)
profile: power (87.0% confidence)
season_read: breakout (67.0% confidence)

Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev

Metric	2022	2023	Change (actual outcome)
OPS+ (Sabr-Jev)	210.9	174.2	▼ dropped −36.6 (target: drop ≥ 10) — target hit

Target: ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next · Label: true · Season: 2023

Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.

At the time, the model projected 46.0% chance of noul change. Actual outcome is in the table above.

Evaluation status

Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.

2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.