Season workbench

Sabr-Jev

Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.

Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.

Trea Turner · 2023 · batter

OPS+ (Sabr-Jev)
111.139
wOBA
0.333
PA691
ISO0.192
BB%0.065
K%0.217
BABIP0.310

No previous season in frozen catalog for evidence comparison.

Sample: 691 PA (minimum 200) · qualified

No data warnings.

Model read

stable provisional thresholds

The supplied metrics support a sustainable, broadly stable season read.

Confidence 81.0% · 64.0% signal · strong

The metrics provide a strong and coherent signal.

Signal
strong (64.0%)
Read confidence
81.0%

Confidence clears the bar collectively — act on this read.

Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.

Shows its work — audit trail
Model
jev-1.13.0
Recorded
2026-09-21T21:44:01Z
State hash
sha256:572109a0bb6f…
Questions hash
sha256:4cfe7f0c4dce…
Card artifact
priv/data/cards.json
  • confidence_in_signal: review
  • ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next: review
  • profile: review
  • season_read: act

Recommended read: stable

  • confidence_in_signal: strong (64.0% confidence)
  • ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next: P(true) 29.0% (71.0% confidence)
  • profile: balanced (51.0% confidence)
  • season_read: stable (81.0% confidence)

Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev

Metric 2023 2024 Change (actual outcome)
OPS+ (Sabr-Jev) 111.1 121.1 ▼ improved +9.9 (target: drop ≥ 10)

Target: ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next · Label: false · Season: 2024

Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.

At the time, the model projected 29.0% chance of noul change. Actual outcome is in the table above.

Evaluation status

Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.

2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.