Season workbench

Sabr-Jev

Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.

Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.

Aaron Judge · 2024 · batter

OPS+ (Sabr-Jev): 222.830
wOBA: 0.476

PA	703
ISO	0.379
BB%	0.189
K%	0.243
BABIP	0.367

Evidence — previous season(s) in catalog

For context, not model input. The model saw only this season's numbers.

Metric	2024 (this season)	2022 (judgeaa01)
OPS+ (Sabr-Jev)	222.8	210.9
wOBA	0.476	0.458
PA	703	692
ISO	0.379	0.375
BB% / K%	0.189 / 0.243	0.160 / 0.253

Sample: 703 PA (minimum 200) · qualified

No data warnings.

Model read

breakout provisional thresholds

The supplied metrics jointly support an unusually strong positive season read.

Confidence 52.0% · 89.0% signal · strong

The metrics provide a strong and coherent signal.

Signal: strong (89.0%)
Read confidence: 52.0%

Confidence clears the bar collectively — act on this read.

Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.

Shows its work — audit trail

Model: jev-1.13.0
Recorded: 2026-09-19T04:02:04Z
State hash: sha256:5a151fa9d0da…
Questions hash: sha256:4cfe7f0c4dce…
Card artifact: priv/data/cards.json

confidence_in_signal: act
ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next: review
profile: act
season_read: review

Recommended read: breakout

confidence_in_signal: strong (89.0% confidence)
ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next: P(true) 52.0% (52.0% confidence)
profile: power (84.0% confidence)
season_read: breakout (52.0% confidence)

Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev

Metric	2024	2025	Change (actual outcome)
OPS+ (Sabr-Jev)	222.8	215.4	▼ dropped −7.4 (target: drop ≥ 10)

Target: ops_plus_drop_ge_10_next · Label: false · Season: 2025

Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.

At the time, the model projected 52.0% chance of noul change. Actual outcome is in the table above.

Evaluation status

Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.

2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.