Season workbench
Sabr-Jev
Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.
Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.
- Sandy Alcantara · 2022
- Shane Bieber · 2020
- Corbin Burnes · 2021
- Gerrit Cole · 2023
- Jacob deGrom · 2020
- Jacob deGrom · 2021
- Jacob deGrom · 2024
- Zac Gallen · 2023
- Shota Imanaga · 2024
- Clayton Kershaw · 2022
- Shohei Ohtani · 2022
- Robbie Ray · 2021
- Chris Sale · 2024
- Paul Skenes · 2024
- Paul Skenes · 2025
- Tarik Skubal · 2024
- Blake Snell · 2023
- Gregory Soto · 2024
- Justin Steele · 2023
- Spencer Strider · 2023
- Framber Valdez · 2022
- Justin Verlander · 2022
- Logan Webb · 2023
- Zack Wheeler · 2024
- Zack Wheeler · 2025
Clayton Kershaw · 2022 · pitcher
- FIP
- 2.628
- ERA
- 2.280
- K-BB%
- 0.231
| IP | 126.333 |
|---|---|
| HR/9 | 0.712 |
| BB/9 | 1.639 |
| K/9 | 9.760 |
No previous season in frozen catalog for evidence comparison.
Sample: 126.333 IP (minimum 50) · qualified
No data warnings.
Model read
breakout provisional thresholds
The supplied metrics jointly support an unusually strong positive season read.
The metrics provide a strong and coherent signal.
- Signal
- strong (76.0%)
- Read confidence
- 23.0%
Confidence is mixed — the full probabilities below are the verdict, not a single call.
Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.
Shows its work — audit trail
- Model
- jev-1.13.0
- Recorded
- 2026-09-21T21:44:12Z
- State hash
sha256:e5e1798e28cc…- Questions hash
sha256:6635e0fc7d7a…- Card artifact
-
priv/data/cards.json
- confidence_in_signal: act
- fip_rise_ge_0_50_next: review
- profile: act
- season_read: escalate
Under review: full probabilities below, no single bold recommendation.
confidence_in_signal
| weak | 1.0% |
|---|---|
| moderate | 14.0% |
| strong | 85.0% |
fip_rise_ge_0_50_next
| P(true) | 23.0% |
|---|---|
| Confidence max(p, 1-p) | 77.0% |
profile
| strikeout | 87.0% |
|---|---|
| command | 3.0% |
| contact_management | 6.0% |
| balanced | 4.0% |
| other | 0.0% |
season_read
| breakout | 38.0% |
|---|---|
| stable | 26.0% |
| regression_risk | 15.0% |
| small_sample | 20.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | Change (actual outcome) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIP | 2.63 | 4.03 | ▲ rose +1.41 (target: rise ≥ 0.50) |
Target: fip_rise_ge_0_50_next · Label: true · Season: 2023
Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.
At the time, the model projected 23.0% chance
of noul
change. Actual outcome is in the table above.
Evaluation status
Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.
2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.