Season workbench

Sabr-Jev

Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.

Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.

Gregory Soto · 2024 · pitcher

FIP: 3.701
ERA: 4.415
K-BB%: 0.156

IP	53.000
HR/9	0.679
BB/9	4.585
K/9	11.038

No previous season in frozen catalog for evidence comparison.

Sample: 53.000 IP (minimum 50) · qualified

No data warnings.

Model read

small sample provisional thresholds

The supplied sample is too small for a firm season read.

Confidence 51.0% · 43.0% signal · moderate

The metrics provide a meaningful but not decisive signal.

Signal: moderate (43.0%)
Read confidence: 51.0%

Confidence is mixed — the full probabilities below are the verdict, not a single call.

Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.

Shows its work — audit trail

Model: jev-1.13.0
Recorded: 2026-09-19T04:02:04Z
State hash: sha256:665e4d1c27a6…
Questions hash: sha256:6635e0fc7d7a…
Card artifact: priv/data/cards.json

confidence_in_signal: escalate
fip_rise_ge_0_50_next: review
profile: act
season_read: review

Under review: full probabilities below, no single bold recommendation.

confidence_in_signal

weak	10.0%
moderate	62.0%
strong	28.0%

fip_rise_ge_0_50_next

P(true)	26.0%
Confidence max(p, 1-p)	74.0%

profile

strikeout	94.0%
command	2.0%
contact_management	2.0%
balanced	2.0%
other	0.0%

season_read

breakout	2.0%
stable	6.0%
regression_risk	30.0%
small_sample	61.0%
other	1.0%

Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev

Metric	2024	2025	Change (actual outcome)
FIP	3.70	3.40	▲ fell −0.3 (target: rise ≥ 0.50)

Target: fip_rise_ge_0_50_next · Label: false · Season: 2025

Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.

At the time, the model projected 26.0% chance of noul change. Actual outcome is in the table above.

Evaluation status

Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.

2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.