Season workbench

Sabr-Jev

Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.

Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.

Framber Valdez · 2022 · pitcher

FIP
2.997
ERA
2.816
K-BB%
0.154
IP201.333
HR/90.492
BB/92.995
K/98.672

No previous season in frozen catalog for evidence comparison.

Sample: 201.333 IP (minimum 50) · qualified

No data warnings.

Model read

stable provisional thresholds

The supplied metrics support a sustainable, broadly stable season read.

Confidence 60.0% · 77.0% signal · strong

The metrics provide a strong and coherent signal.

Signal
strong (77.0%)
Read confidence
60.0%

Confidence is mixed — the full probabilities below are the verdict, not a single call.

Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.

Shows its work — audit trail
Model
jev-1.13.0
Recorded
2026-09-21T21:44:11Z
State hash
sha256:266b646e0939…
Questions hash
sha256:6635e0fc7d7a…
Card artifact
priv/data/cards.json
  • confidence_in_signal: act
  • fip_rise_ge_0_50_next: review
  • profile: review
  • season_read: review

Under review: full probabilities below, no single bold recommendation.

confidence_in_signal

weak 2.0%
moderate 12.0%
strong 86.0%

fip_rise_ge_0_50_next

P(true)17.0%
Confidence max(p, 1-p)83.0%

profile

strikeout 56.0%
command 5.0%
contact_management 22.0%
balanced 16.0%
other 1.0%

season_read

breakout 15.0%
stable 67.0%
regression_risk 8.0%
small_sample 9.0%
other 1.0%

Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev

Metric 2022 2023 Change (actual outcome)
FIP 3.00 3.49 ▲ rose +0.5 (target: rise ≥ 0.50)

Target: fip_rise_ge_0_50_next · Label: false · Season: 2023

Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.

At the time, the model projected 17.0% chance of noul change. Actual outcome is in the table above.

Evaluation status

Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.

2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.