Season workbench
Sabr-Jev
Season stats lie by omission. The verdict below says act, review, or set aside — with full probabilities, never hype.
Showing 25 of 50 — empty combinations are not offered.
- Sandy Alcantara · 2022
- Shane Bieber · 2020
- Corbin Burnes · 2021
- Gerrit Cole · 2023
- Jacob deGrom · 2020
- Jacob deGrom · 2021
- Jacob deGrom · 2024
- Zac Gallen · 2023
- Shota Imanaga · 2024
- Clayton Kershaw · 2022
- Shohei Ohtani · 2022
- Robbie Ray · 2021
- Chris Sale · 2024
- Paul Skenes · 2024
- Paul Skenes · 2025
- Tarik Skubal · 2024
- Blake Snell · 2023
- Gregory Soto · 2024
- Justin Steele · 2023
- Spencer Strider · 2023
- Framber Valdez · 2022
- Justin Verlander · 2022
- Logan Webb · 2023
- Zack Wheeler · 2024
- Zack Wheeler · 2025
Blake Snell · 2023 · pitcher
- FIP
- 3.443
- ERA
- 2.250
- K-BB%
- 0.182
| IP | 180.000 |
|---|---|
| HR/9 | 0.750 |
| BB/9 | 4.950 |
| K/9 | 11.700 |
No previous season in frozen catalog for evidence comparison.
Sample: 180.000 IP (minimum 50) · qualified
No data warnings.
Model read
regression risk provisional thresholds
The supplied metrics contain a meaningful regression-risk signal.
The metrics provide a strong and coherent signal.
- Signal
- strong (10.0%)
- Read confidence
- 37.0%
The signal isn't there — one or more answers fell short, so set this read aside.
Verdict reflects the model's read of this season alone. Outcome in the Oracle pane is historical fact — they are independent and may not align.
Shows its work — audit trail
- Model
- jev-1.13.0
- Recorded
- 2026-09-21T18:57:33Z
- State hash
sha256:81a65a13d90e…- Questions hash
sha256:6635e0fc7d7a…- Card artifact
-
priv/data/cards.json
- confidence_in_signal: escalate
- fip_rise_ge_0_50_next: review
- profile: act
- season_read: escalate
Under escalation: full probabilities below, no single bold recommendation.
confidence_in_signal
| weak | 11.0% |
|---|---|
| moderate | 37.0% |
| strong | 52.0% |
fip_rise_ge_0_50_next
| P(true) | 27.0% |
|---|---|
| Confidence max(p, 1-p) | 73.0% |
profile
| strikeout | 88.0% |
|---|---|
| command | 3.0% |
| contact_management | 6.0% |
| balanced | 3.0% |
| other | 0.0% |
season_read
| breakout | 27.0% |
|---|---|
| stable | 15.0% |
| regression_risk | 49.0% |
| small_sample | 8.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
Oracle — retrospective eval-only pane, never sent to Jev
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | Change (actual outcome) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIP | 3.44 | 2.50 | ▲ fell −0.94 (target: rise ≥ 0.50) |
Target: fip_rise_ge_0_50_next · Label: false · Season: 2024
Outcome ≠ recommendation. Change flag shows what historically happened; the read above shows what the model recommended at the time. No correlation is implied.
At the time, the model projected 27.0% chance
of noul
change. Actual outcome is in the table above.
Evaluation status
Prospective evaluation: accuracy pending. No accuracy claim is made.
2024 → 2025 joins are retrospective plumbing only. The local ledger is hash chained but cannot prove external capture time.